January Links

2017 was the safest year for aviation in decades. A lot of people have tried to politicize this, but I'm pretty sure aircraft engineers and operators get 99% of the credit.

Arguably related: Why did everything take so long?

Visualization of the music from Interstellar.

Astronaut John Young passes away at 87. On a related note, a longevity research FAQ.

Falcon Heavy gets a launch date: February 6th. It'll be exciting to see whether my prediction proves correct.

An older article on dolphin intelligence.

Scott Alexander on bitcoin and bias.

Speaking of bias, NY Times opinion piece on how social media is making us dumber. Specifically, how soundbytes and decontextualized quotation lead people to believe that public figures advocate the polar opposite of what those public figures are actually advocating.

Shifting Registers

Epistemic Status: Probably re-inventing the wheel

Epistemic Effort: Regular ruminations over the span of several months

In linguistics, a register describes the differences in word choice, pronunciation, sentence construction, etc. that we use in various social settings. For a simple example, you would use a totally different register talking to your boss in a meeting than your spouse after dinner. 

Probably. It wouldn't surprise me if some people use the same register everywhere. I definitely have trouble shifting to a friendly register, even with people I'm sorta comfortable with. But that's not the point of this post. Rather, I want to steal the term to describe a more psychological phenomena.

First, though, let me tell you a story.

Back during my last semester at Purdue, my mom had some inkling of how serious the situation was, and decided to sign me up for a session with her therapist when I was around for spring break. The session was largely forgettable, in no small part because you don't really need a hypnotist to put you to sleep when you're as tired as I was, but one thing I remember saying stuck out.

I was trying to describe how my stress response worked, and ran into an issue explaining it. You see, how I operated when I was in West Lafayette was almost entirely divorced with how I operated in Kansas City.

This makes perfect sense when you think about it. When I was at home, I was sleeping all day and didn't have class. When I was at school, I had classes and homework and exams and so on. At school, I lived in a dorm, with a roommate, showered and brushed my teeth in a communal bathroom, etc. At home, I had dramatically more privacy. I rode in cars instead of walking or taking the bus.

I tried to explain that my behavior, mindset, whatever you want to call it was very different when I was at home for a break, even a mid-semester break, than at school. I don't think I did a very good job. But that realization has stuck with me.

This is what I'm describing as a register. Even now, I'm in a very different register when I'm at home or at school. Yesterday I was in Kansas City, today I'm in Lawrence. In KC, I'm mostly killing time because I literally never know when I'll be interrupted for whatever activity my parents want me for. My most productive hours were monopolized by manual labor in the continuing move process, and then, exhausted, I couldn't exert decent discipline in a non-optimized environment.

Today, I am the only person ultimately controlling my daily schedule. When I finish writing this blog post, I'll finish my grocery list and go to the store, put in laundry after I come back, and start reading up for this semester. I still don't have great self-discipline, but my routine is designed around my needs and apartment layout.

Concrete examples don't really get at the underlying difference, unfortunately. I'm not trying to describe the way my routine varies, but rather the way my mindset varies. At school, I'm focused on more optimal forms of recreation between churning out assignments. That's the ideal, at least; I frequently still fall short. But that's a hell of a lot better than waiting for the largely-unpredictable parental help requests. It's difficult to get anything done, so after all these years I've basically stopped trying. It's not a mindset I like, so naturally I try to minimize my time there.

Shifting registers isn't quick or easy. Part of the reason I went back to school early this semester was to begin the process early. All too often, during what non-engineers call "syllabus week", I'm still operating primarily in the home register than the school register. I slack off out of habit instead of clearing out easy assignments quickly and efficiently. I don't like that but there's only so much that BRUTE STRENGTH can do for it. Putting myself back in the correct habitspace is a much smarter tactic.

If I didn't get the idea across well-enough, well, maybe I just need to switch registers.

Predictions for 2018

The New Year is a time for reflection and self-improvement, and in that spirit I'm putting out my predictions for 2018. The rules are the same as they were in 2017. At the end of the year, I'll come back and see how accurate I was.

PERSONAL/ACADEMIC

I will read 15 books this year: 95%
....20 books: 80%
....30 books: 60%
I will write an average of two blog posts per month: 80%
....three blog posts per month: 70%
....four blog posts per month: 60%
I will not experience a major political/religious/philosophical conversion: 95%
I will write more than 10,000 words of fiction this year: 70%
I will still be using Facebook, Twitter, and Tumblr: 90%
I will remain single this year: 60%
I will vote in the 2018 midterm elections: 95%
I will not be hospitalized: 95%
I will not have my wisdom teeth removed: 90%
My French will improve this year: 60%
Jayhawk Rocket Design will begin constructing the hybrid rocket engine: 70%
I will graduate with my degree in aerospace engineering: 95%
....in May: 90%
....with a GPA 3.2 or above: 80%
KU Aerospace will place in at least one AIAA Design Competition: 90%
....two AIAA Design Competitions: 80%
I will no longer be living in Kansas: 60%
I will either find an engineering job or enroll in grad school by December: 95%

SCIENCE/SPACE

No successful human clones announced: 80%
No major progress on figuring out the "EM Drive": 70%
Falcon Heavy successfully launches this year: 80%
SpaceX Dragon 2 test-flown this year: 90%
....successfully: 80%
Boeing Starliner test-flown this year: 90%
....successfully: 80%
Astronauts will launch from American soil: 70%
Virgin Galactic tourist flights won't begin this year: 60%
Blue Origin begins crewed tests this year: 60%
No crewed flights beyond Low Earth Orbit: 90%
NASA Orion will remain on-schedule: 70%
No deaths in space this year: 90%
No country leaves the ISS Treaty: 90%

POLITICS/WORLD

Donald Trump will still be President at the end of 2018: 95%
Mike Pence will still be Vice President: 95%
Republicans will lose the House and/or Senate at midterms: 90%
Theresa May will still be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom: 90%
UK will remain on track to leave the European Union: 80%
No additional countries will leave the European Union: 70%
US Nominal GDP will finish ahead of the EU and China: 80%
Bitcoin will end the year valued $500 or above: 80%
....$1000 or above: 70%
....$10,000 or above: 60%
Fewer than 10 cases of wild polio will be contracted: 70%

META

I will remember to score these predictions: 95%
I will have been overconfident in these predictions: 80%
I will have been less overconfident than in 2017: 60%

This year I am making a total of fifty predictions, and attempting to be more conservative than last year. That said, I still expect to be overconfident. See you back in twelve months to see whether I was successful.