Every January, I make a set of predictions about what will happen over the course of the new year. At the end of the year, I come back and score them to see how accurate I was. Here are my predictions for 2020.
I will read 15 books this year: 95%
....20 books: 80%
....25 books: 70%
I will read three technical/science/engineering books this year: 80%
...five books: 60%
I will write an average of one blog post per month: 90%
....two blog posts per month: 60%
I will not experience a major political/religious/philosophical conversion: 95%
I will still be using Facebook, Twitter, and Tumblr: 80%
I will remain single this year: 70%
I will vote in the 2020 general elections: 95%
I will have my wisdom teeth removed: 60%
I will not be hospitalized this year: 95%
I will compete in the NaNoWriMo Summer Writing Program: 90%
....and succeed: 80%
My French will not improve this year: 80%
I will not begin learning Russian this year: 80%
I will still be attending graduate school: 90%
....on track to graduate in May 2021: 80%
I will end the year GPA 3.5 or above: 70%
I will still be participating in the Less Wrong/SSC community: 95%
I will attend some sort of Solstice event: 70%
No successful human clones announced: 90%
No strong evidence of extra-terrestrial life found: 95%
Both Voyager spacecraft will still be operational: 80%
Hubble Space Telescope will still be operational: 90%
International Space Station will still be operational: 95%
JWST scheduled to launch on or before December 31, 2021: 70%
SpaceX conducts Demonstration Mission 2 successfully: 70%
Boeing conducts the Crew Test Flight successfully: 60%
Astronauts (public or private) launch from American soil to above the Kármán Line: 70%
One Commercial Crew rotation begins this year: 60%
SLS will not launch this year: 60%
Virgin Galactic tourist flights will not begin this year: 60%
Blue Origin begins crewed tests this year: 60%
SpaceX Starship will not fly this year: 60%
Rocket Lab will demonstrate successful stage recovery: 60%
China will have more successful orbital launches than the US this year: 80%
The United States will have more successful orbital launches than Russia: 90%
No crewed flights beyond Low Earth Orbit: 95%
Shenzhou 12 successfully completed: 70%
No deaths in space this year: 90%
No country leaves the ISS Treaty: 90%
Sci-Hub will remain easily accessible from the United States: 90%
Donald Trump will still be President of the United States: 95%
Mike Pence will still be Vice-President of the United States: 95%
At least one US government shutdown will occur this year: 60%
Donald Trump wins the Republican Party nomination: 95%
Joe Biden wins the Democratic Party nomination: 70%
The Democratic Party nominee will win the Presidency: 60%
Democrats will maintain control the House: 70%
Republicans will maintain control of the Senate: 70%
United States will not go to war with a nuclear power: 95%
United States will not enter a major new war (>100 US casualties): 80%
Boris Johnson will still be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom: 90%
Justin Trudeau will still be Prime Minister of Canada: 95%
Vladimir Putin will still be President of Russia: 95%
UK will leave the European Union: 80%
No additional counties will opt to leave the European Union: 95%
North Korean government will not be overthrown or displaced: 95%
North Korean government will not begin major liberal reforms: 95%
Bitcoin will end the year valued $500 or above: 90%
....$1000 or above: 80%
....$5000 or above: 60%
Fewer than 200 cases of wild polio this year: 70%
Fewer than 350 case of vaccine-derived polio this year: 60%
I will remember to score these predictions: 95%
I will still be overconfident in these predictions: 70%
This year I am making sixty-eight (68) predictions, because I wanted an even number in each category and didn't want to cut any. I am less confident that I'll be over-confident this year, because I performed comparatively well in 2019, but we won't know for another twelve months whether I am or not.
