Every January, I make a number of predictions about how the coming year will go. At the end of the year, I come back and score them. Here are my predictions for 2021.
PERSONAL/ACADEMIC
I will read 15 books this year: 90%
...20 books: 80%
...25 books: 70%
I will read three technical/science/engineering books this year: 80%
...five books: 60%
I will write an average of one blog post per month: 90%
...greater than one blog post per month: 60%
I will not experience a major political/religious/philosophical conversion: 95%
I will still be using Facebook, Twitter, and Tumblr: 90%
I will remain single this year: 60%
I will not have my wisdom teeth removed: 60%
I will not be hospitalized this year: 90%
Neither of my parents will be hospitalized this year: 80%
I will compete in either NaNoWriMo proper or the Summer Writing Program: 90%
...and succeed: 80%
I will compete in both NaNoWriMo proper and the Summer Writing Program: 60%
My French will improve this year: 70%
I will not begin learning Russian this year: 80%
I will graduate with my MS degree in aerospace engineering: 95%
...in May: 80%
...with a GPA of 3.5 or above: 90%
I will either find an engineering job or start my own venture: 90%
I will no longer be living in Kansas: 60%
I will no longer be living with my parents: 90%
I will participate in some sort of Solstice Event (including remote viewing): 70%
SCIENCE/SPACE
No successful human clones announced: 95%
Venusian phosphine continues to not replicate: 80%
No other strong evidence of extra-terrestrial life found: 95%
Both Voyager spacecraft will still be operational: 90%
Hubble Space Telescope will still be operational: 90%
MSL Curiosity will still be operational: 90%
International Space Station will still be operational: 90%
James Webb Space Telescope launches this year: 80%
Boeing conducts Orbital Test Flight 2 successfully: 90%
Boeing conducts the Crewed Test Flight successfully: 80%
NASA astronauts reach orbit exclusively on commercial vehicles this year: 80%
Artemis 1 does not launch this year: 60%
Artemis 2 still scheduled to launch on or before 31 December 2023: 70%
Artemis 3 still scheduled to launch on or before 31 December 2024: 60%
Lunar Gateway still scheduled to begin construction in 2024: 70%
Starship will not successfully complete an orbital test flight this year: 90%
Virgin Galactic tourist flights will not begin this year: 70%
The United States will have more successful orbital launches than China this year: 70%
China will have more successful orbital launches than Russia this year: 80%
No crewed flights beyond Low Earth Orbit: 95%
Shenzhou 12 successfully completed: 60%
No deaths in space this year: 90%
No country leaves the ISS Treaty: 90%
Starlink leaves beta (for at least some locations): 60%
Sci-Hub will remain easily accessible from the United States: 90%
CORONAVIRUS - 25
US cumulative confirmed cases exceed 30 million: 95%
...40 million: 90%
...50 million: 80%
US cumulative confirmed deaths exceed 500,000: 95%
...750,000: 80%
...1,000,000: 70%
Global cumulative confirmed cases exceed 150 million: 90%
...200 million: 80%
...250 million: 70%
...300 million: 60%
Global cumulative confirmed deaths exceed 3 million: 90%
...4 million: 80%
...5 million: 70%
At least four coronavirus vaccines approved by the FDA: 70%
United States in top five countries for vaccination percentage rate: 60%
...top three countries: 70%
At least 50 million Americans vaccinated: 95%
...at least 100 million Americans: 80%
...at least 200 million Americans: 60%
My grandfather and step-grandmother receive a coronavirus vaccination: 95%
Both of my parents receive a coronavirus vaccination: 90%
I receive a coronavirus vaccination: 80%
I do not experience a confirmed case of COVID-19: 90%
No one in my household has a confirmed case of COVID-19: 80%
No one in my close extended family dies of COVID-19: 70%
POLITICS/WORLD
Joe Biden will still be President of the United States: 95%
Kamala Harris will still be Vice-President of the United States: 95%
Nancy Pelosi will remain Speaker of the House: 90%
Mitch McConnell or Chuck Schumer will be Senate Majority Leader: 90%
At least one US government shutdown will occur this year: 70%
Puerto Rico will not be admitted as a new state this year: 95%
DC will not be admitted as a new state this year: 95%
At least one major Republican (current or former Governor, Senator, or Representative) announces a Presidential bid: 60%
United States will not go to war with a nuclear power: 95%
United States will not enter a major new war (>100 US casualties): 80%
Boris Johnson will still be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom: 90%
Justin Trudeau will still be Prime Minister of Canada: 95%
Vladimir Putin will still be President of Russia: 95%
No additional countries will opt to leave the European Union: 95%
North Korean government will not be overthrown or displaced: 95%
North Korean government will not begin major liberal reforms: 95%
Bitcoin will end the year valued $1000 or above: 95%
...$10,000 or above: 80%
...$20,000 or above: 60%
Oil prices will not go negative this year: 90%
Fewer than 250 cases of wild polio this year: 80%
Fewer than 1000 cases of vaccine-derived polio this year: 60%
META
I will remember to score these predictions: 95%
I will be underconfident in these predictions: 60%
I will be less underconfident in my predictions than in 2020: 80%
For the first time, I am making a full 100 predictions: 25 in each major category besides Politics/World, which has only 22. The remainder go into Meta.
I am still not willing to bet on any of my predictions, which (contra yesterday's statements) should tell you how strongly I rate my intuition. Maybe next year, if I do well in 2021, and if I have some of my own money laying around. I don't feel comfortable betting, even if I set a trivial maximum cap, with other people's funds.
