2021 Prediction Results

Every year, I make predictions about what will happen in the coming year, and every New Year's Eve, I come back to score then. I made a full 100 predictions for the first time in 2021, and it does not seem that a greater number improved my success, as we will see.

Predictions which I got right are left unmarked. Predictions that were wrong are struck-through. I am throwing out three predictions, which are marked in italics. First, I'm throwing out the political/religious/philosophical conversion prediction, surprising as that may be. I've had some experiences that I won't relay here, which might constitute the beginning of a major change, but I'm not sure where, if anywhere, it'll go at this time. Additionally, I am still working on one class for grad school, so my GPA is in an unusual state of flux for this time of year. For both of these predictions, I genuinely can't say yet whether the cat is dead or alive. The final prediction I'm throwing out comes from the Meta category, where I think being "less underconfident" is conditional on being underconfident at all.

PERSONAL/ACADEMIC

I will read 15 books this year: 90%
...20 books: 80%
...25 books: 70%
I will read three technical/science/engineering books this year: 80%
...five books: 60%
I will write an average of one blog post per month: 90%
...greater than one blog post per month: 60%
I will not experience a major political/religious/philosophical conversion: 95%
I will still be using Facebook, Twitter, and Tumblr: 90%
I will remain single this year: 60%
I will not have my wisdom teeth removed: 60%
I will not be hospitalized this year: 90%
Neither of my parents will be hospitalized this year: 80%
I will compete in either NaNoWriMo proper or the Summer Writing Program: 90%
...and succeed: 80%
I will compete in both NaNoWriMo proper and the Summer Writing Program: 60%
My French will improve this year: 70%
I will not begin learning Russian this year: 80%
I will graduate with my MS degree in aerospace engineering: 95%
...in May: 80%
...with a GPA of 3.5 or above: 90%
I will either find an engineering job or start my own venture: 90%
I will no longer be living in Kansas: 60%
I will no longer be living with my parents: 90%
I will participate in some sort of Solstice Event (including remote viewing): 70%

SCIENCE/SPACE

No successful human clones announced: 95%
Venusian phosphine continues to not replicate: 80%
No other strong evidence of extra-terrestrial life found: 95%
Both Voyager spacecraft will still be operational: 90%
Hubble Space Telescope will still be operational: 90%
MSL Curiosity will still be operational: 90%
International Space Station will still be operational: 90%
James Webb Space Telescope launches this year: 80%
Boeing conducts Orbital Test Flight 2 successfully: 90%
Boeing conducts the Crewed Test Flight successfully: 80%
NASA astronauts reach orbit exclusively on commercial vehicles this year: 80%
Artemis 1 does not launch this year: 60%
Artemis 2 still scheduled to launch on or before 31 December 2023: 70%
Artemis 3 still scheduled to launch on or before 31 December 2024: 60%
Lunar Gateway still scheduled to begin construction in 2024: 70%
Starship will not successfully complete an orbital test flight this year: 90%
Virgin Galactic tourist flights will not begin this year: 70%
The United States will have more successful orbital launches than China this year: 70%
China will have more successful orbital launches than Russia this year: 80%
No crewed flights beyond Low Earth Orbit: 95%
Shenzhou 12 successfully completed: 60%
No deaths in space this year: 90%
No country leaves the ISS Treaty: 90%
Starlink leaves beta (for at least some locations): 60%
Sci-Hub will remain easily accessible from the United States: 90%

CORONAVIRUS

US cumulative confirmed cases exceed 30 million: 95%
...40 million: 90%
...50 million: 80%
US cumulative confirmed deaths exceed 500,000: 95%
...750,000: 80%
...1,000,000: 70%
Global cumulative confirmed cases exceed 150 million: 90%
...200 million: 80%
...250 million: 70%
...300 million: 60%
Global cumulative confirmed deaths exceed 3 million: 90%
...4 million: 80%
...5 million: 70%
At least four coronavirus vaccines approved by the FDA: 70%
United States in top five countries for vaccination percentage rate: 60%
...top three countries: 70%
At least 50 million Americans vaccinated: 95%
...at least 100 million Americans: 80%
...at least 200 million Americans: 60%
My grandfather and step-grandmother receive a coronavirus vaccination: 95%
Both of my parents receive a coronavirus vaccination: 90%
I receive a coronavirus vaccination: 80%
I do not experience a confirmed case of COVID-19: 90%
No one in my household has a confirmed case of COVID-19: 80%
No one in my close extended family dies of COVID-19: 70% 

POLITICS/WORLD

Joe Biden will still be President of the United States: 95%
Kamala Harris will still be Vice-President of the United States: 95%
Nancy Pelosi will remain Speaker of the House: 90%
Mitch McConnell or Chuck Schumer will be Senate Majority Leader: 90%
At least one US government shutdown will occur this year: 70%
Puerto Rico will not be admitted as a new state this year: 95%
DC will not be admitted as a new state this year: 95%
At least one major Republican (current or former Governor, Senator, or Representative) announces a Presidential bid: 60%
United States will not go to war with a nuclear power: 95%
United States will not enter a major new war (>100 US casualties): 80%
Boris Johnson will still be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom: 90%
Justin Trudeau will still be Prime Minister of Canada: 95%
Vladimir Putin will still be President of Russia: 95%
No additional countries will opt to leave the European Union: 95%
North Korean government will not be overthrown or displaced: 95%
North Korean government will not begin major liberal reforms: 95%
Bitcoin will end the year valued $1000 or above: 95%
...$10,000 or above: 80%
...$20,000 or above: 60%
Oil prices will not go negative this year: 90%
Fewer than 250 cases of wild polio this year: 80%
Fewer than 1000 cases of vaccine-derived polio this year: 60%

META

I will remember to score these predictions: 95%
I will be underconfident in these predictions: 60%
I will be less underconfident in my predictions than in 2020: 80%

See, I told you the meta questions were conditional. Let's start scoring:

In each band of question:

60% predictions: 9 right and 8 wrong, for a score of 53%

70% predictions: 5 right and 9 wrong, for a score of 36% (!)

80% predictions: 17 right and 4 wrong, for a score of 81%

90% predictions: 24 right and 1 wrong, for a score of 96%

95% predictions: 19 right and 1 wrong, for a score of 95%

Most of these bands are not bad, but I completely fell apart at the 70% confidence range. I had trouble there in 2019, but nowhere near as badly.

Graphed, the results look like this:

This would be not-bad calibration except for the 70% band, which is so egregious I can't begin to ignore it. I don't know what high-level result to take away, besides reducing my confidence and possibly doing fewer conditional predictions.

By category, I actually did worst in Personal/Academic with 61% accuracy. This is usually my best category, though given the fact that my personal life was thrown for a loop within the first few days of 2021, I suppose that it shouldn't be too surprising. Science/Space had 76% accuracy, with again launch schedule optimism as a common issue. Coronavirus was 80% accurate, due to a combination of better outcomes but worse policy response. Politics/World was 91% accurate, and I'm pleased to report polio eradication efforts seem to be getting back on track. The only questions I missed here were related to internal Congressional action, which after January 6th doesn't seem like a great failure on my part.

My overall accuracy was 76%, as I got 74 out of 97 predictions right. This is not bad overall, but could have been better; perfect calibration would have been closer to 80% overall accuracy.

I think the high-level takeaway is that I do well predicting events which are quite likely to happen, but have had more trouble with less probable events. The fact that I was close in the 60% category might be a fluke; with such a small sample size, it's hard to tell. My tentative plan for next year is to reduce my confidence, especially in the personal sphere. This make a certain amount of sense; global trends and major projects are more stable than my individual affairs.