Predictions for 2023

Every January, I make predictions about what will happen in the year to come, which I then come back and score on New Year's Eve. Here are my predictions for 2023.

PERSONAL/PROFESSIONAL/ACADEMIC

I will read 12 books this year: 90%
...15 books: 80%
...20 books: 60%
I will read more fiction than nonfiction this year: 70%
I will write an average of one blog post per month: 90%
I will not experience a major political/religious/philosophical conversion: 90%
I will still be using Facebook, Twitter, and Tumblr: 80%
I will remain single this year: 60%
I will not have my wisdom teeth removed: 80%
I will not be hospitalized this year: 95%
I will not experience a confirmed case of COVID-19 this year: 80%
No one in my close extended family dies of COVID-19: 80%
I will not receive any additional booster doses: 70%
I will compete in either NaNoWriMo proper or the Summer Writing Program: 90%
...and succeed: 70%
I will compete in both: 60%
I will either finish my MS or abandon the program entirely: 95%
I will still be working for Barrios Technology: 95%
...on the gCAMMP team: 90%
I will still be living in Texas: 95%
I visit Kansas City at least once this year: 90%
...more than once: 60%
I will still be involved in the meatspace LW/ACX/EA community: 90%
I will get involved in the local Mensa group: 70%
I will attend some sort of Solstice Event: 60%

SCIENCE/TECHNOLOGY

No successful human clones announced: 95%
No artificial wombs for humans demonstrated: 95%
Venusian phosphine continues to not replicate: 95%
No other strong evidence of extra-terrestrial life found: 95%
X-59 successfully demonstrated this year: 90%
NIF experiments will exceed 4 MJ energy release: 70%
...5 MJ: 60%
No truly self-sustaining fusion reactors demonstrated this year: 90%
GPT-4 released this year: 70%
The popular press will still be using "AI" to describe linear algebra: 95%
No unambiguous artificial general intelligence released: 95%
No additional COVID-19 vaccines approved by the FDA: 70%
The FDA does not approve a fifth booster dose: 70%
The FDA does not approve an mRNA vaccine for another disease: 60%
Sci-Hub will remain easily accessible from the United States: 80%
Sci-Hub will not resume adding new papers: 70%
Sci-Hub will remain operational to some extent: 90%

SPACEFLIGHT

Both Voyager spacecraft will still be operational: 90%
Hubble Space Telescope will still be operational: 90%
MSL Curiosity will still be operational: 90%
Perseverance will still be operational: 95%
Ingenuity will still be operational: 70%
International Space Station will still be operational: 95%
Axiom Segment still scheduled to begin construction in 2025: 60%
Tiangong station will still be operational: 90%
Orbital Reef, Voyager, and Northrop Grumman space station projects all still in progress: 80%
Boeing conducts the Crewed Test Flight: 90%
...successfully: 80%
Europa Clipper still scheduled to launch in 2024: 80%
JUICE launches this year: 90%
Psyche launches this year: 90%
Artemis 2 still scheduled to launch on or before 31 December 2025: 80%
Artemis 3 still scheduled to launch on or before 31 December 2026: 80%
Lunar Gateway scheduled to begin construction in 2025: 70%
Starship completes the orbital test flight this year: 90%
...successfully: 70%
New Glenn does not complete an orbital test flight this year: 60%
Virgin Galactic begins tourist flights this year: 70%
United States will have more successful orbital launches than China this year: 80%
China will have more successful orbital launches than Russia: 90%
No deaths in space this year: 90%
No country leaves the ISS Treaty: 80%

POLITICS/WORLD

Joe Biden will still be President of the United States: 95%
Kamala Harris will still be Vice-President of the United States: 95%
Chuck Schumer will still be Senate Majority Leader: 95%
No form of federal carbon tax will be passed in the US: 95%
Donald Trump will still be running for President: 90%
At least one other major Republican (current or former Governor, Senator, or Representative) announces a Presidential bid: 60%
Biden approval rating above 35% per FiveThirtyEight: 80%
...above 40%: 70%
Puerto Rico will not be admitted as a state this year: 90%
United States will not experience an obvious recession: 70%
US YoY Inflation will be lower in 2023 than in 2022 (November-to-November figures): 80%
US Unemployment remains below 5%: 70%
US Prime-Age Employment-to-Population Ratio remains above 78%: 60%
United States does not go to war with a nuclear power: 90%
United States will not enter a major new war (>100 US casualties): 80%
Rishi Sunak will still be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom: 80%
Justin Trudeau will still be Prime Minister of Canada: 90%
Emmanuel Macron will still be President of France: 95%
Vladimir Putin will still be President of Russia: 80%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy will still be President of Ukraine: 90%
No additional countries opt to leave the European Union: 95%
No full-scale negotiated ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian War: 70%
Ukraine will remain independent: 80%
Ukraine will not regain its pre-2022 borders: 90%
Ukraine will not regain its pre-2014 borders: 95%
China does not invade Taiwan: 90%
North Korean government will not be overthrown or displaced: 95%
North Korean government will not begin major liberal reforms: 95%
Fewer than 150 cases of wild polio this year: 70%
Fewer than 1000 cases of vaccine-derived polio this year: 80%

META

I will remember to score these predictions: 95%
I will be overconfident in these predictions: 80%
I will be less overconfident than in 2022: 60%

For the third year running, I have a set of 100 predictions, divided into similarly-sized categories. This year, I divided the Science/Space category into separate Science/Technology and Spaceflight categories. The former is the smallest category, in part because I don't have a standing set of recurring predictions to draw from. I've limited myself to only a handful of AI and fusion predictions, because I don't really know enough about those to make very many estimates of what will happen over the next twelve months.

The last couple of years I've been overconfident, so I tried to be more cautious than usual this year. If you see a number that looks oddly low, that's probably why. We'll find out in twelve months whether I was successful.