02 December 2017

Hyperbolic Discounting Revisited

Related Reading: Picoprocrastination, Hyperbolic Discounting in Education

My, what a difference a year makes! As the months till graduation tick down, my time horizon has seemed to grow. It's not clear whether that's a product of the hard limit of my knowledge approaching, or my lived experience increasing.

Either way, my dissatisfaction with past selves has risen dramatically as 2017 progressed. At this point, I can even admit that my behavior—while not necessarily unpredictable given those initial conditions—was the primary reason I failed so dramatically during my years at Purdue. Four years doesn't seem like a particularly long time, not nearly as long as it felt five years ago, during my first semester of university.

Motivating myself with the prospect of being done with it (no, not like that) is now a viable strategy. It never worked before, and I found those kinds of pep talks somewhere between frustrating and completely incomprehensible. When I wrote about hyperbolic discounting in education, I was just barely starting to react to that line of reasoning, after a semester of struggling to make myself work through a workload that, in retrospect, was pretty good. I probably wouldn't have believed it then, but I'm actually nostalgic for Dr. D's thermodynamics class. It's unclear, however, how much of that perception stems from the broader situation.

Noticing progress can be a subtle art, but pleasurable nonetheless.

01 December 2017

December Daily Journal 2017?

I'm considering repeating the December Daily Journal exercise from 2015 as a way of time-tracking during these last few weeks of the semester, and to lay out the things I need to do during winter break. I'm not sure if this is actually a good idea, so I'm going to sleep on it and see what I think about it tomorrow.

30 November 2017

I Am Not Civilization

One of the biggest things to notice looking back over the past three or four years is that my personal progress doesn't track that of American society or Western Civilization in general. Specifically, there have been points where, just as I think I've gotten things figured out and a reasonable course of action prepared, events in my personal life and the general milieu horrendously contradicts that progress. Let's look at a case from each arena.

The most extreme example, of course, would be my parents' decision to move. This proved to be financially irresponsible and an extreme instance of planning fallacy, but let's ignore that bit for now, because I couldn't demonstrate that then. Let's look at the emotional context of this decision.

I was told about this plan on Labor Day Weekend of 2016. I had, a few months earlier, completed my first year back at university. I spent the fall and spring semesters living in a private dorm which I had hated for a number of reasons, which can ultimately be traced back to the character and behavior of my neighbors (though that the doors slammed by default certainly helped nothing). During the spring semester I drove back to Kansas City almost every weekend and by the end of that period felt that my parents had a pretty reasonably understanding, at last, of what engineering school was like from a student's perspective.

Despite some struggling, I emerged from my pseudo-sophomore year with decent grades. I'd gone from flunking thermodynamics to loving it. I'd discovered just how fun orbital mechanics can be, once Kerbal Space Program gives you a visual intuition for it. Academically, things were improving.

That summer, I took the last courses I need to catch up with the standard plan of study for someone graduating in with the Class of 2018. I did well in those courses, after which point I'd exceeded the material I'd flunked at Purdue. From an academic standpoint, things were looking up.

Furthermore, I'd moved into the apartment where I'm writing this very blog post. It's much quieter and also cheaper, dramatically so when you consider the expanded floor space. That seemed like an even greater benefit when my then-girlfriend said she wanted to move in with me after she graduated.

From my perspective, everything in my personal life was looking up. Moreover, we'd just a year previously finished selling my late grandmother's house, which was an ordeal like no other. Why in God's Name anyone would want to repeat that Sisyphean torture stumped me, but became completely incomprehensible in the context of my rapidly-improving life.

We all know how that worked out. In the year since then my relationship ended acrimoniously, the move still isn't done, and the time demands placed upon me did nothing to help my grades. None of those things are reversible, but that does nothing for the fact that most of them didn't have to happen in the first place.

Speaking of things which didn't have to happen, how about we talk about the general milieu? I'm thinking, of course, about politics.

You see, I used to be a very extreme libertarian, as a saunter through the archives of this blog will reveal. In January of 2015—late on the evening of January 31st, to be precise—I was presented with an argument, from a fellow libertarian, which my informal rationality training made it impossible for me to accept. Without digging into the details, I realized that the non-aggression principle may exist on the map, but it doesn't exist in the territory. From there, I started questioning my entire moral-political structure, and decided that I had to start over from scratch.

I was studying meta-politics, group dynamics, looking at statistical rather than just-so stories—in summary, moving from the larval to merely adolescent stage of intellectual development. Sadly, I haven't made terribly much progress on that front since 2015, because I simply haven't had much time and mismanaged much of the time I had back when I had it. Then again, I wouldn't have had this problem if I hadn't been arguing on the Internet late at night on a Saturday night in the first place.

The point is, I was developing as the world around me devolved further into tribalism and bad epistemology. I don't want to rehash the details of the 2016 pre-primary campaign, but suffice to say I saw a lot of irrational behavior which culminated in the political class feeding a professional troll into the White House. The Carthaginians would be very proud.

It was painful to watch, and even more painful to do nothing about, because I didn't have my philosophical house in sufficient order to present a viable alternative. I still don't, but made the necessary moves—unfollowing people, using Facebook dramatically less, taking Twitter off my phone—to avoid the worst of the political news that never mattered and only wastes mental space. If I'd had any sense, I would have done that before the primaries. Sadly, my past selves were more akratic and less committed to my long-term well-being than my current, still problematic self.

The point, here, is that I could see all the errors everyone else was making (as well as my own), and wondering how they didn't see the mistakes being made. Many of the people involved had no excuse not to know better!


I doubt there's any real solutions to this problem, besides further isolating myself from those who choose to live unconsciously. Choiceless mode may be comforting, but once you progress there's no going back. Civilization does not follow my trajectory, and to stay sane, I may need to decouple my trajectory from it.

29 October 2017

October Links

Spotted Toad on issues with public school segregation.

I'm like three months behind on Slate Star Codex, but the post on futurism was worth making an exception for.

The LessWrong 2.0 project is making progress. I'd love to follow along but I haven't really had the time for that.

An Anglospheric Union inches towards reality as the United Kingdom considers joining NAFTA. The Canadians have an even more audacious suggestion.

Speaking of international partnerships, the Europeans are interested in joining the Deep Space Gateway project.

Exciting space news: astronomers now believe object A/2017 U1 is interstellar in origin. Specifically, the object has an observed orbital eccentricity ~1.2, indicating a hyperbolic trajectory not bound to Sol. This obviously limits the amount of observational time, so we're not likely to learn a whole lot from the encounter. Universe Today article, NASA press release.

Old space news I just found out about: Lockheed Martin's Mars Base Camp proposal.

Coding challenge: build Tetris in Conway's Game of Life.

It's not really the right time of year for those commencement speech blog posts, but here's one anyway. Nonetheless appropriate as I apply for jobs and grad school.

23 September 2017

September Links

Astronomy Now: Corrected sunspot history suggests climate change not due to natural solar trends.

Is the US economy more egalitarian than Tinder?

Asteroid 3122 Florence, which passed safely by Terra this month, has two small moons. This makes it the third known triple NEO.

Katja Grace on coordination problems.

Put A Number On It reviews the Premium Mediocre.

Scott Alexander on institutional review boards, and his commenters on the post.

As expected, the Cassini mission ended on the 15th. Here's my retrospective.

OSIRIS-REx flies by Earth en route to Bennu.

Massive solar flare happens just in time for my space weather class. It's always fun to see the practical applications of what you're learning about.

26 August 2017

August Links

Creating fnords with technology.

Kuiper-Belt Object 2014 MU69, New Horizon's next target, may be two objects in close proximity.

The Hubble Space Telescope discovers an exoplanet with a warm stratosphere. A zone of where atmospheric temperature increases with altitude—a stratosphere—is common for planets in the solar system, but this is the first positive detection in another system. The detection involved oxidane gas, but the planet in question is undoubtedly too hot to have liquid water on the surface.

A federal excise tax on ammunition pays for state wildlife conservation, which garnered a lot more money during the Obama years due to gun control concerns.

Cephalopods evolve faster by RNA editing than DNA mutation. This is basically unheard-of in animal species, which poses some interesting questions for biologists.

U.S. Army team discovers a new technique for manufacturing hydrogen from water and aluminum alloys. If it scales up economically, it might finally be viable to switch away from polluting hydrogen fuels. Hopefully we won't have to wait too long to find out.

Asteroid 3122 Florence will pass Terra at 7 million kilometers distance on September 1. This will be its closest approach for the next several hundred years, and should be a good target for amateur astronomers.

Solar flares don't leave an impact on polar nitrate records. This is interesting because dozens of other chemicals do leave an ice-core trace after solar flares, but some of the biggest flares don't show any evidence.

Our World In Data crunched the numbers, and nuclear power plants are still the safest energy source. If anything, their analysis is pessimistic; I might do a follow-up post at a later date. Related: IAEA on nuclear storage accidents.

22 August 2017

Senior Design

Yesterday, I was camping to watch the solar eclipse. Today, I'm back at school, diving into the material for senior year. My space-focused classes haven't met yet (updates on that front possibly tomorrow), but already the workload shaping up to be just as tough as last year's graduates warned us it would be.

The aerospace senior design classes focus on the AIAA Design Competitions. This year, the undergraduate individual aircraft request is to propose a Close Air Support (CAS) vehicle to replace the A-10. It's a shame Alex had to push back 521 a year, because this sounds right up his alley.

Our first assignment is Block 1 of a combined report, which will be due on Monday, September 11. By that point in time, we will have needed to have derived a mission profile from the specifications, reviewed the history of similar aircraft, and extrapolated from that data to perform the weight, wing, and powerplant sizing. All of it will naturally need to be summarized, formatted, and referenced.

On the subject of formatting, we've been given a few options for producing our reports. The standard approach is to use Microsoft Word, which has an unfortunate tendency to completely obliterate carefully-tweaked documents. Alternatively, we can use Adobe InDesign, which few of us know but allows for more meticulous curation. Because the design curve on InDesign is so steep, Dr. Barrett is offering some extra-credit for its use. LaTeX is also permitted, but will not garner any extra credit. I specifically taught myself LaTeX this summer to avoid the hassle of using MS Word this fall, so LaTeX it will probably be.

What we don't have a choice about is submitting our designs to competition. Knowing that these proposals will actually be judged may provide additional motivation to produce something decent. Or maybe adding pressure will only cause more problems. We'll just have to wait and see!

In either case, I should probably start reading. There's an awful lot to learn.

30 July 2017

July Links

Hamilton parody arguing against the repugnant conclusion.

Derailing as a conflict of authority.

Paul Graham on The Refragmentation paints a frightening picture of America's future. The good news is that we don't have enough teenagers for a political revolution. The bad news is that adults are still behaving terribly.

Twitter updated their design last month, and once again we must remind platforms that the problem isn't change, the problem is terrible decision-making. Wodtke argues there's roughly an order of magnitude difference between what developers offer and what users will accept.

Scott Alexander on types of typologies.

Tom Scott argues against backdoor encryption.

Researchers detected acrylonitrile in Titan's atmosphere, which likely forms cell-membrane-like structures in the moon's conditions. This adds to the evidence that Titan may be an abode of life in the solar system.

NASA has a Venus surface simulator, being used to study materials that might be useful on future space probes.

The first wedding in the British Antarctic Territory happened this month. I don't think they're planning to stay there, but it still brings humanity one small step closer to colonizing the southern continent.

Falcon Heavy launch date pushed back to November.

Wordpress supports LaTeX, so I was able to show off some differential equations in my Chaos review. Expect a lot more mathy posts over there in the coming months.

20 July 2017

Missing Positions

Related To: The Missing Moods

Here's a rough distribution of the American electorate's political positions:

Voter Study Group
You'll notice that the overall bias is heavily against the combination of social liberalism and economic conservatism1. In other words, genuine libertarians are pretty rare. It's nice to see data confirming what you already knew.

The two main clusters in US politics (and, I suspect, in most modernized countries) are socially conservative & economically centrist, and socially liberal & economically authoritarian. This misses a whole quadrant of possibility-space and, I think, overlooks most of the good solutions for our problems.

But this isn't a post about why there should be more libertarians, because I don't fit in with libertarians.

Many people will argue that 'right' and 'left' are natural categories, more natural than Nolanesque formulations acknowledge. There may be good reason to believe that. But it's downright weird how many people, in this age of political compass memes, still can't really seem to break outside the box and consider more sensible combinations.

Today's particular question is why there doesn't seem to be a significant mass of people who embody both pro-market economics, anti-interventionist policies, and a scientific worldview. The best example I'm coming up with is a certain subset of the rationalist movement, but that subset can't be more than a few thousand people at the absolute maximum and most of them lean towards left-libertarianism2, besides.

This isn't really a new problem; I never felt at home among the libertarian movement. My Objectivist background is probably a big part of that—back in the day Ron Paul seemed too conservative for my tastes. Despite my tolerance for high-reactionary arguments, I'm not really a traditionalist. There's stuff worth preserving from the past—like, we shouldn't torch it wholesale—but generally speaking modernity is better. Corrective optics, antihistamines, air conditioning....you can see where I'm going here. Nerds like me don't make good yeoman farmers.

Since I started reading The Virtue of Selfishness a few days ago, I've been thinking about that again. The Objectivist peg doesn't fit into the conservative hole very well (though it fits into the liberal hole slightly worse). Objectivist reject religion, embrace technological progress, are fine with women in the workplace, are generally okay with abortion, and prefer modern architecture.

This doesn't sound like a group that would vote predominantly Republican! And yet, they do, on vaguely economic grounds. As we see above, the GOP's electorate isn't exactly hypercapitalist3. But the other reason Objectivists end up closer to conservatives is that the philosophy demands an individual standard of conduct. Egoism is not hedonism, in other words. Stand up straight, look problems in the eye, and expect the best from yourself and others.

Okay, that sounds a little more like ur-conservatism. But again, the standards are different. Egoism is not Protestantism, either. Objectivists don't fit in anywhere. Then consider the fact that I don't even fit in with the Objectivists!

I've got to write that post on epistemic distance.


1I contend that the "conservative" position should rightfully be called liberalism, but that's not really the point here.

2For full disclosure, most people would probably consider me somewhat left-libertarian at this point. This is accurate insofar as I'm sympathetic to arguments for a guaranteed basic income and such, but the term carries an affect that doesn't really apply.

3This wouldn't be a problem if the party's elected representatives werehypercapitalist, but they really aren't. In my experience, new libertarians give up on the "work through the Republican Party" approach in less than three years.

23 June 2017

May/June Links

California wants to tax rocket launches. The article portrays this as something aerospace companies want, because it would clarify their tax status, but one is reminded of President Reagan's famous epigram.

Scott Alexander on the bail system.

Bloomberg: Americans Are Paying $38 to Collect $1 of Student Debt

A short game to illustrate the issues of gerrymandering and proportional representation.

Old blog post from Taymon Beal discussing the morality of benefiting from net-negative events.

Even older editorial from Ross Douthat arguing that we don't have enough cults these days. I wonder if he still feels that way.

The European Space Agency experiments with using Lunar materials for additive manufacturing.

Stratolaunch Systems, which I'd honestly forgotten about, rolled out its aircraft for test flights.

In typical fashion, it turns out regulations were the biggest hurdle in building a luxurious $20,000 house, though the designers aren't doing themselves any favors by insisting their methods create more jobs at a living wage.

Xenon gas concentrations measured by Rosetta provide further evidence than comets contributed to Earth's early atmosphere.

Noah Smith gives us a visceral rationality lesson in the Shouting Class.

Some arguments against fallacy-ology. I agree with the general position here (there might be a draft lurking around on the same topic) though think it could be stated better.

Science fiction glossary for your writing needs.

Sarah C on survival mindsets versus status mindsets.

A quasi-utilitarian argument for small government. By no means airtight, but worth a read.