My obsession with Antarctica has awakened from dormancy, at least for a little while. Here's some thoughts I had.
If I'm going to establish a colony on the southernmost continent, it needs to be mostly autonomous. Currently, every research station is heavily dependent on food, fuel, and building materials from the mainland. This makes sense: their purpose is science, not settlement.
An autonomous, long-term settlement is going to need three things to support its inhabitants. First, it has to provide them with enough food. Second, it needs to keep them warm. Third, it has to be stable.
Antarctica isn't exactly known for being a lush paradise. The predominant natural resource is snow. Near the coast, there's the possibility of fishing, best conducted during the summer months. Considering these fisheries are largely untapped, it shouldn't be too difficult to store up plenty for winter.
There's also the possibility of horticulture. Despite being low in the sky, the sun shines continuously for about half the year, allowing enormous crop growth. They already do this in Alaska, but they have something we won't: fertile soil. We'll have to import our own, and maintain it (through recycling our own wastes). Hopefully food plants like dead fish bits.
We can supplement our food supply by growing things under sun lights in winter time, which brings us to the next problem: energy. Right now, pretty much all power is produced by generators, burning fuel brought down by plane. Importing oil is both unclean and expensive, so we need a better alternative.
The first possibility that I think of is nuclear power, which has actually been done before. However, nuclear reactors are very expensive, not to mention the international community frowns on them, Once a large community has been established it might be viable, but until then we need an alternative.
Even if battery technology improves drastically over the next few years, the months of night make solar still a no-go. I'm not going to rule out geothermal just yet, but I think wind is our best bet.
Consider it. Antarctica has a huge wind potential--after snow, that's probably the easiest resource to exploit. You just have to find a site with relatively constant flow, set up some turbines, and enjoy cheap, regular energy for your base.
That's one constraint on where you build. The other is stability.
One of the big issues for Antarctic explorers has been ice flows. Most of the continent is covered with glaciers, which are moving. If you build on top of them, your base moves with it. Obviously, this isn't something we want for our fledgling colony. We'd like to avoid a Little America situation. There's two ways we can deal with this.
The first is to build our colony where it won't move. This may be as simple as affixing it to one of the rock formations poking through the ice, or could involve building the settlement in one of the Antarctic mountains. Of the two, the former is significantly easier, though offers less security. I anticipate large communities will develop along protected mountains than in the open.
Plains settlements have a possible solution, however. Properly constructed, bases could be moved regularly. Such bases are harder to insulate, which is why permanent Antarctic stations are built on rocky coasts or so far inland a few kilometers drift is nothing to worry about. We'll probably have to do the same thing.
Anyway, those are my thoughts on the matter as of right now. I'll let you know if anything else comes to mind.
30 September 2014
29 September 2014
Scarcity
Scarcity has been a constant of human existence.
I was initially tempted to say "since [time x]," but scarcity existed long before humans. In fact, every species has experienced scarcity, and every species will. There will always be something lacking--food, water, space, or time. The forms vary, but demand has always exceeded supply.
That might be about to change.
Historically, I've rejected the idea "post-scarcity economy" on principle. The universe is finite--the resources of our planet certainly are--so there can never be unlimited abundance. That said, technological advances mean that supply will soon exceed demand, making pseudo-post-scarcity (hereafter referred to simply as post-scarcity) possible.
Human nature being to reproduce, and the universe still being finite, this condition (probably) won't continue forever. However, it could go on for a very, very long time. We need to be thinking about it, but that's not the purpose of this post. For now, I'd just like to enumerate the forms of scarcity.
Scarcity of Energy
Energy underlies everything we do. Hunger is one of the most ubiquitous human afflictions, because we need constant energy inputs--food--to survive.
Plants get their energy from the sun, and their nutrients from the soil. They traded mobility for security, and as a consequence, became the bottom of the food chain. Other organisms found another way to operate, gaining both nutrients and energy by consuming other organisms. It's less efficient, but allows the consumer the freedom to move. That was the first step in gaining control over nature (but I digress).
The problem of food production has, in fact, been effectively solved. Famines and malnutrition are more a problem of distribution. However, the forms of energy needed proliferated greatly when we became a technological species.
But even the problem of energy production has been solved. Nearly unlimited energy from the nuclei of atoms is at our disposal. We call it nuclear and solar power.
Of course, you say, "but we don't have unlimited energy! That can't be right!" Again, the barriers are not in production, but in distribution. Enough uranium and thorium are present to power the world several times over, but nuclear generating stations are difficult and expensive to construct, thanks to overzealous regulators and so-called 'environmentalists.' Their preferred method, solar panels, is really just another sort of nuclear energy, using a reactor over a hundred million kilometers away. But solar panels are typically inefficient, and that energy is challenging to store or transport.
Developments in lithium batteries and superconductors present the possibility of practical solar power, and a more rational electorate would allow nuclear power to reach its potential. Even without the long-awaited invention of cold fusion, effective energy abundance can be achieved by the century's end.
Scarcity of Resources
Material goods have been the primary source of human competition for the majority of history. There are many causes for this, and it is not my purpose to discuss them here. We accept the fact as it is, and ask what it means for us.
Only so much arable land, potable water, building materials exist for humans to use. The things we use to shelter our bodies, produce our food, and entertain ourselves are fundamentally limited. Generally, the amount people require or desire has far exceeded the amount their environment can provide. Human ingenuity has solved this problem just as it has solved the problem of energy. Tools and materials our savanna ancestors could never have imagined using form the basis of a modern economy. Steel, coal, uranium, granite, petroleum are all but useless to supporting life, but we've made them work for our purposes.
All of these are still limited. Terra's natural resources must be divided, whether equally or unequally, among her human population. Making matters worse, the vast majority are unavailable to us. It is no exaggeration to say that Mars is closer to our own planet's core.
Remember that last sentence. We'll be coming back to it.
Scarcity of Labor
Labor actually hasn't always been scarce, so to speak, throughout history. If it were, we wouldn't have economically-illiterate progressives arguing to raise the minimum wage. In most western nations, actually, there's more people willing to do things than there are things to do.
Frontiers are the general exception to the rule, where work is plentiful but people are few and far between (at least, since we got the whole agriculture thing figured out). There are other reasons why so many people leave comfortable lives in the city to conquer the wilderness, but that itself is a big one.
Nevertheless, employers are always looking for ways to reduce the amount of labor they need (and laborers are always trying to get away with providing as little labor as possible). Neither of these are very productionist approaches to things, but it's the way most people operate. Automation has been the primary means for reducing labor costs--and, very soon, we may have complete automation of nearly everything.
This is quite frightening, both because of the AI implications, and the question of what we're all going to do when no human is needed to run the economy. I'll try tackling with these questions later in the post-scarcity series.
Scarcity of Time
Only one form of scarcity do I not see us overcoming within the next thirty years, and that is scarcity of time. I could be wrong about that, though.
We all have only so many cell divisions available to us. From the instant of conception we're racing against a biological clock. Healthy lifestyles can reduce the frequency of cell divisions, but there's no way (yet) to increase the number.
Other possibilities will be discussed down the road.
Conclusion
The universe is still finite, so some form of scarcity will always exist. However, there may be a time in the near future where supply far exceeds demand, and this is going to have some major social repercussions. To minimize the negative effects of drastic change, I believe it is vitally important to look ahead.
Will you?
I was initially tempted to say "since [time x]," but scarcity existed long before humans. In fact, every species has experienced scarcity, and every species will. There will always be something lacking--food, water, space, or time. The forms vary, but demand has always exceeded supply.
That might be about to change.
Historically, I've rejected the idea "post-scarcity economy" on principle. The universe is finite--the resources of our planet certainly are--so there can never be unlimited abundance. That said, technological advances mean that supply will soon exceed demand, making pseudo-post-scarcity (hereafter referred to simply as post-scarcity) possible.
Human nature being to reproduce, and the universe still being finite, this condition (probably) won't continue forever. However, it could go on for a very, very long time. We need to be thinking about it, but that's not the purpose of this post. For now, I'd just like to enumerate the forms of scarcity.
Scarcity of Energy
Energy underlies everything we do. Hunger is one of the most ubiquitous human afflictions, because we need constant energy inputs--food--to survive.
Plants get their energy from the sun, and their nutrients from the soil. They traded mobility for security, and as a consequence, became the bottom of the food chain. Other organisms found another way to operate, gaining both nutrients and energy by consuming other organisms. It's less efficient, but allows the consumer the freedom to move. That was the first step in gaining control over nature (but I digress).
The problem of food production has, in fact, been effectively solved. Famines and malnutrition are more a problem of distribution. However, the forms of energy needed proliferated greatly when we became a technological species.
But even the problem of energy production has been solved. Nearly unlimited energy from the nuclei of atoms is at our disposal. We call it nuclear and solar power.
Of course, you say, "but we don't have unlimited energy! That can't be right!" Again, the barriers are not in production, but in distribution. Enough uranium and thorium are present to power the world several times over, but nuclear generating stations are difficult and expensive to construct, thanks to overzealous regulators and so-called 'environmentalists.' Their preferred method, solar panels, is really just another sort of nuclear energy, using a reactor over a hundred million kilometers away. But solar panels are typically inefficient, and that energy is challenging to store or transport.
Developments in lithium batteries and superconductors present the possibility of practical solar power, and a more rational electorate would allow nuclear power to reach its potential. Even without the long-awaited invention of cold fusion, effective energy abundance can be achieved by the century's end.
Scarcity of Resources
Material goods have been the primary source of human competition for the majority of history. There are many causes for this, and it is not my purpose to discuss them here. We accept the fact as it is, and ask what it means for us.
Only so much arable land, potable water, building materials exist for humans to use. The things we use to shelter our bodies, produce our food, and entertain ourselves are fundamentally limited. Generally, the amount people require or desire has far exceeded the amount their environment can provide. Human ingenuity has solved this problem just as it has solved the problem of energy. Tools and materials our savanna ancestors could never have imagined using form the basis of a modern economy. Steel, coal, uranium, granite, petroleum are all but useless to supporting life, but we've made them work for our purposes.
All of these are still limited. Terra's natural resources must be divided, whether equally or unequally, among her human population. Making matters worse, the vast majority are unavailable to us. It is no exaggeration to say that Mars is closer to our own planet's core.
Remember that last sentence. We'll be coming back to it.
Scarcity of Labor
Labor actually hasn't always been scarce, so to speak, throughout history. If it were, we wouldn't have economically-illiterate progressives arguing to raise the minimum wage. In most western nations, actually, there's more people willing to do things than there are things to do.
Frontiers are the general exception to the rule, where work is plentiful but people are few and far between (at least, since we got the whole agriculture thing figured out). There are other reasons why so many people leave comfortable lives in the city to conquer the wilderness, but that itself is a big one.
Nevertheless, employers are always looking for ways to reduce the amount of labor they need (and laborers are always trying to get away with providing as little labor as possible). Neither of these are very productionist approaches to things, but it's the way most people operate. Automation has been the primary means for reducing labor costs--and, very soon, we may have complete automation of nearly everything.
This is quite frightening, both because of the AI implications, and the question of what we're all going to do when no human is needed to run the economy. I'll try tackling with these questions later in the post-scarcity series.
Scarcity of Time
Only one form of scarcity do I not see us overcoming within the next thirty years, and that is scarcity of time. I could be wrong about that, though.
We all have only so many cell divisions available to us. From the instant of conception we're racing against a biological clock. Healthy lifestyles can reduce the frequency of cell divisions, but there's no way (yet) to increase the number.
Other possibilities will be discussed down the road.
Conclusion
The universe is still finite, so some form of scarcity will always exist. However, there may be a time in the near future where supply far exceeds demand, and this is going to have some major social repercussions. To minimize the negative effects of drastic change, I believe it is vitally important to look ahead.
Will you?
28 September 2014
Internal Affairs
There's a couple other changes I'd like to address.
First of all, I'm reworking my labels. Instead of listing out every topic that's even been tagged, I'll be choosing a handful to use for series of posts that deal with topics I discuss frequently. For instance, I'm working on a "post-scarity" series that will be going out over the next few weeks.
There's also going to be an "internal affairs" label for posts such as this, to make it easier for readers (primarily me) to keep track of the blog's development.
Progress on finding a new theme has been slow. I'll probably have to give in and tweak each element individually. Or I could just keep using a default and focus on content. Yeah, like that'll happen.
Hope all you hypothetical readers had a good weekend.
First of all, I'm reworking my labels. Instead of listing out every topic that's even been tagged, I'll be choosing a handful to use for series of posts that deal with topics I discuss frequently. For instance, I'm working on a "post-scarity" series that will be going out over the next few weeks.
There's also going to be an "internal affairs" label for posts such as this, to make it easier for readers (primarily me) to keep track of the blog's development.
Progress on finding a new theme has been slow. I'll probably have to give in and tweak each element individually. Or I could just keep using a default and focus on content. Yeah, like that'll happen.
Hope all you hypothetical readers had a good weekend.
23 September 2014
New Directions for Autumn
In typical form, I neglected this blog most of the summer. Well, at least I'm consistent.
Autumn is here, which means schoolwork, yard work, normal work, and carrying around more insulation on a daily basis. Moreover, the dead and dying plants all are a constant reminder that my time in the universe is limited. Life goes on, but I won't. Procrastinating joy is not an option.
This has a few implications.
My primary problem, simply put, is that I waste too much time on trivial matters. Recreation is fine, so long as it doesn't get in the way of what you really want to do. Being honest with myself, it does.
Over the next few weeks, I'll be following my friend Amelia in a social media purge (though I don't expect mine to be nearly as drastic). A lot of Facebook pages, Twitter accounts, and tumblr blogs are going to left by the wayside. It's really quite horrifying when I realize I've spent the last ten minutes scrolling past posts that don't interest me whatsoever.
Removing that distraction set can make way for more productive forms of entertainment. I'd gotten out of reading habit at college. My plan was to fix that this summer; the pile of books lies almost untouched. I'm finally starting to pick them up again, and we'll see how far I get before the end of the year. What I can say already: this is a much better use for mindspace.
Speaking of which, I also need to make academics--particularly my science, mathematics, and engineering coursework--a greater part of my everyday thought process. To put it differently: my career is a System 2 matter, when it should be System 1. (Thinking, Fast and Slow is near the top of the reading list.) Doing my homework is the simplest way to improve on this, but not the only one.
Khan Academy and Codecademy, among others, are wonderful resources that, despite great enthusiasm, I've largely neglected. I'll be making greater use of them in the future, partially as an alternative to social media, and partially for their own sake. Additionally, I'm going to start practicing engineering problems for their own sake. You'll be seeing that appear on this blog.
This space will also feature more insightful political and economic discussion. My friend Chas recently showed me CGP Grey's video Humans Need Not Apply. It has...had an effect on me. I'll be talking about the implications of large scale automation for the next several weeks, at least.
(More mundane changes to this blog: I'm looking for a new theme,and posts will be in Garamond from now onforget that. Several drafts are going to be abandoned, and several others finally finished. Perhaps I'll even make my goal of posting every week!)
Last but not least, I'm devoting slightly more thought and action towards my own health. My diet is a bit subpar, which I've already done a bit to improve. My sleep schedule is a great deal worse, but will improve drastically if I cut out the social media (especially on the nights when I get home late from work or school).
Let's see how well this works out.
Autumn is here, which means schoolwork, yard work, normal work, and carrying around more insulation on a daily basis. Moreover, the dead and dying plants all are a constant reminder that my time in the universe is limited. Life goes on, but I won't. Procrastinating joy is not an option.
This has a few implications.
My primary problem, simply put, is that I waste too much time on trivial matters. Recreation is fine, so long as it doesn't get in the way of what you really want to do. Being honest with myself, it does.
Over the next few weeks, I'll be following my friend Amelia in a social media purge (though I don't expect mine to be nearly as drastic). A lot of Facebook pages, Twitter accounts, and tumblr blogs are going to left by the wayside. It's really quite horrifying when I realize I've spent the last ten minutes scrolling past posts that don't interest me whatsoever.
Removing that distraction set can make way for more productive forms of entertainment. I'd gotten out of reading habit at college. My plan was to fix that this summer; the pile of books lies almost untouched. I'm finally starting to pick them up again, and we'll see how far I get before the end of the year. What I can say already: this is a much better use for mindspace.
Speaking of which, I also need to make academics--particularly my science, mathematics, and engineering coursework--a greater part of my everyday thought process. To put it differently: my career is a System 2 matter, when it should be System 1. (Thinking, Fast and Slow is near the top of the reading list.) Doing my homework is the simplest way to improve on this, but not the only one.
Khan Academy and Codecademy, among others, are wonderful resources that, despite great enthusiasm, I've largely neglected. I'll be making greater use of them in the future, partially as an alternative to social media, and partially for their own sake. Additionally, I'm going to start practicing engineering problems for their own sake. You'll be seeing that appear on this blog.
This space will also feature more insightful political and economic discussion. My friend Chas recently showed me CGP Grey's video Humans Need Not Apply. It has...had an effect on me. I'll be talking about the implications of large scale automation for the next several weeks, at least.
(More mundane changes to this blog: I'm looking for a new theme,
Last but not least, I'm devoting slightly more thought and action towards my own health. My diet is a bit subpar, which I've already done a bit to improve. My sleep schedule is a great deal worse, but will improve drastically if I cut out the social media (especially on the nights when I get home late from work or school).
Let's see how well this works out.
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