Every January, I make predictions about what will happen in the coming year, to be scored on New Year's Eve. These are my predictions for 2022.
PERSONAL/PROFESSIONAL/ACADEMIC
I will read 15 books this year: 90%...20 books: 80%
...25 books: 60%
I will read three technical/science/engineering books this year: 70%
I will read more nonfiction books than fiction books this year: 60%
I will write an average of one blog post per month: 90%
...greater than one blog post per month: 60%
My current ideations will not result in a major political/religious/philosophical conversion: 80%
I will still be using Facebook, Twitter, and Tumblr: 90%
I will remain single this year: 60%
I will vote in the 2022 midterms: 95%
I will not have my wisdom teeth removed: 70%
I will not be hospitalized this year: 90%
Neither of my parents will be hospitalized this year: 80%
I will compete in either NaNoWriMo proper or the Summer Writing Program: 95%
...and succeed: 90%
My French will improve this year: 60%
I will not begin learning Russian this year: 90%
I will finish my MS degree in aerospace engineering: 95%
I will still be working for SES: 90%
I will still be living in Virginia: 95%
I will move to a new apartment: 80%
I will get involved locally with the Less Wrong/ACX community: 70%
I will get involved with the local Mensa group: 80%
I will attend some sort of Solstice Event (including remote viewing): 60%
SCIENCE/SPACE
No successful human clones announced: 95%
Venusian phosphine continues to not replicate: 90%
No other strong evidence of extra-terrestrial life found: 95%
Both Voyager spacecraft will still be operational: 90%
Hubble Space Telescope will still be operational: 90%
MSL Curiosity will still be operational: 90%
Perseverance will still be operational: 95%
Ingenuity will still be operational: 60%
International Space Station will still be operational: 95%
Boeing conducts Orbital Test Flight 2 successfully: 80%
Boeing does not conduct the Crewed Test Fight: 60%
Europa Clipper still scheduled to launch in 2024: 95%
JUICE still scheduled to launch in 2023: 95%
Artemis 1 launches this year: 90%
Artemis 2 still scheduled to launch on or before 31 December 2024: 70%
Artemis 3 still scheduled to launch on or before 31 December 2025: 60%
Lunar Gateway still scheduled to begin construction in 2024: 60%
Starship will not successfully complete an orbital test flight this year: 60%
Virgin Galactic will begin tourist flights this year: 70%
United States will have more successful orbital launches than China this year: 60%
China will have more successful orbital launches than Russia: 90%
No crewed flights beyond Low Earth Orbit: 95%
No deaths in space this year: 90%
No country leaves the ISS Treaty: 90%
Sci-Hub will remain easily accessible from the United States: 90%
Venusian phosphine continues to not replicate: 90%
No other strong evidence of extra-terrestrial life found: 95%
Both Voyager spacecraft will still be operational: 90%
Hubble Space Telescope will still be operational: 90%
MSL Curiosity will still be operational: 90%
Perseverance will still be operational: 95%
Ingenuity will still be operational: 60%
International Space Station will still be operational: 95%
Boeing conducts Orbital Test Flight 2 successfully: 80%
Boeing does not conduct the Crewed Test Fight: 60%
Europa Clipper still scheduled to launch in 2024: 95%
JUICE still scheduled to launch in 2023: 95%
Artemis 1 launches this year: 90%
Artemis 2 still scheduled to launch on or before 31 December 2024: 70%
Artemis 3 still scheduled to launch on or before 31 December 2025: 60%
Lunar Gateway still scheduled to begin construction in 2024: 60%
Starship will not successfully complete an orbital test flight this year: 60%
Virgin Galactic will begin tourist flights this year: 70%
United States will have more successful orbital launches than China this year: 60%
China will have more successful orbital launches than Russia: 90%
No crewed flights beyond Low Earth Orbit: 95%
No deaths in space this year: 90%
No country leaves the ISS Treaty: 90%
Sci-Hub will remain easily accessible from the United States: 90%
CORONAVIRUS
US cumulative confirmed cases exceed 80 million: 90%
...100 million: 80%
...120 million: 60%
US cumulative confirmed deaths exceed 1 million: 90%
...1.2 million: 60%
Global cumulative confirmed cases exceed 400 million: 90%
...500 million: 80%
Global cumulative confirmed deaths exceed 6 million: 95%
...7 million: 90%
...8 million: 70%
At least 250 million Americans vaccinated: 95%
...fully vaccinated: 70%
At least 6 billion people vaccinated globally: 90%
...fully vaccinated: 70%
At least 150 million Americans receive a booster dose: 80%
The FDA approves a fourth booster dose (either generic or variant-specific): 70%
I will receive a fourth dose of coronavirus vaccine this year: 70%
No additional vaccines approved by the FDA: 80%
I do not experience a confirmed case of COVID-19: 70%
No one in my close extended family dies of COVID-19: 70%
My workplace does not go to full in-office at any point this year: 95%
My workplace does not go fully-remote at any point this year: 80%
I am still wearing face masks in public >50% of the time: 90%
A new variant overtakes Omicron and Delta in the United States: 60%
...100 million: 80%
...120 million: 60%
US cumulative confirmed deaths exceed 1 million: 90%
...1.2 million: 60%
Global cumulative confirmed cases exceed 400 million: 90%
...500 million: 80%
Global cumulative confirmed deaths exceed 6 million: 95%
...7 million: 90%
...8 million: 70%
At least 250 million Americans vaccinated: 95%
...fully vaccinated: 70%
At least 6 billion people vaccinated globally: 90%
...fully vaccinated: 70%
At least 150 million Americans receive a booster dose: 80%
The FDA approves a fourth booster dose (either generic or variant-specific): 70%
I will receive a fourth dose of coronavirus vaccine this year: 70%
No additional vaccines approved by the FDA: 80%
I do not experience a confirmed case of COVID-19: 70%
No one in my close extended family dies of COVID-19: 70%
My workplace does not go to full in-office at any point this year: 95%
My workplace does not go fully-remote at any point this year: 80%
I am still wearing face masks in public >50% of the time: 90%
A new variant overtakes Omicron and Delta in the United States: 60%
POLITICS/WORLD
Joe Biden will still be President of the United States: 95%
Kamala Harris will still be Vice-President of the United States: 95%
Nancy Pelosi will still be Speaker of the House: 95%
Chuck Schumer will still be Senate Majority Leader: 90%
A bill with the title "Build Back Better" passes: 60%
The Expanded Child Tax Credit is not renewed: 80%
No form of federal carbon tax is passed in the US: 90%
Democrats will maintain control of the House at midterms: 70%
Democrats will maintain control of the Senate at midterms: 60%
At least one major Republican (current or former Governor, Senator, or Representative) announces a Presidential bid: 70%
Donald Trump does not announce a new Presidential bid this year: 80%
Biden approval rating above 40% per FiveThirtyEight: 80%
United States will not go to war with a nuclear power: 90%
United States will not enter a major new war (>100 US casualties): 70%
Boris Johnson will still be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom: 90%
Justin Trudeau will still be Prime Minister of Canada: 95%
Emmanuel Macron will still be President of France: 60%
Vladimir Putin will still be President of Russia: 95%
No additional countries will opt to leave the European Union: 90%
North Korean government will not be overthrown or displaced: 95%
North Korean government will not begin major liberal reforms: 95%
Fewer than 100 cases of wild polio this year: 60%
Fewer than 1000 cases of vaccine-derived polio this year: 60%
Kamala Harris will still be Vice-President of the United States: 95%
Nancy Pelosi will still be Speaker of the House: 95%
Chuck Schumer will still be Senate Majority Leader: 90%
A bill with the title "Build Back Better" passes: 60%
The Expanded Child Tax Credit is not renewed: 80%
No form of federal carbon tax is passed in the US: 90%
Democrats will maintain control of the House at midterms: 70%
Democrats will maintain control of the Senate at midterms: 60%
At least one major Republican (current or former Governor, Senator, or Representative) announces a Presidential bid: 70%
Donald Trump does not announce a new Presidential bid this year: 80%
Biden approval rating above 40% per FiveThirtyEight: 80%
United States will not go to war with a nuclear power: 90%
United States will not enter a major new war (>100 US casualties): 70%
Boris Johnson will still be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom: 90%
Justin Trudeau will still be Prime Minister of Canada: 95%
Emmanuel Macron will still be President of France: 60%
Vladimir Putin will still be President of Russia: 95%
No additional countries will opt to leave the European Union: 90%
North Korean government will not be overthrown or displaced: 95%
North Korean government will not begin major liberal reforms: 95%
Fewer than 100 cases of wild polio this year: 60%
Fewer than 1000 cases of vaccine-derived polio this year: 60%
META
I will remember to score these predictions: 95%
I will be overconfident in these predictions: 70%
I will be less overconfident in my predictions than in 2021: 60%
I will be overconfident in these predictions: 70%
I will be less overconfident in my predictions than in 2021: 60%
For the second year in a row, I managed to come up with a full set of 100. That didn't help me much last year, but we'll see how it goes this time around. The predictions are divided roughly-evenly between categories.
I may experiment with short-term or topic-specific prediction sets this year, as I think trying to develop good calibration year-over-year is a bit slow. But those, if I do them, will be other posts at later dates.
