Day One, Day Two.
The day started out with a presentation on Solar Sails, given by an engineer who researches them for NASA. The basic theory is that space is largely not empty--there are in fact radiations and electromagnetic fields which sufficiently light spacecraft can exploit for propulsion. His talk was largely technical, discussing the history of solar sail experiments and upcoming missions, including NASA's Near Earth Asteroid Scout, which expects to launch with the SLS on Exploration Mission 1.
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| Les Johnson during his presentation on Solar Sails |
Technical problems abound. A little shielding is worse than none because of secondary radiations. Building a rotating habitat to simulate gravity has its own issues--being large enough to avoid head-foot differentials and dizzying Coriolis Effects requires a tremendous size. To build it with adequate shielding stretches our propulsion and material sciences capabilities.
Drugs to treat altitude sickness may prove good at combating inter-cranial swelling. Similarly, drugs may be the best solution to other issues such as bone and muscle deterioration. In the end, more research is needed.
The Future is a Different Country
"I can give you disinformation from lots of perspectives" --Edward M. Lerner
What sort of technologies will have the biggest impact for scifi writers to consider in the coming decades? Lerner believes malware is going to be a lot peskier as the Internet of Things continues, and that carbon-based computing will drastically lower the cost of putting computers in things. Patrick Nielsen Hayden notes that ebooks haven't decimated print books, but that mass-market paperbacks were in fact the product of development in printing technologies.
It's easy to predict first order effects. Second and third order effects are very difficult. The example is predicting automobiles versus predicting traffic jams. It's not impossible, but it's hard to get it right. Many possible futures exists.
What effects will automation have on industries? Will basic income solve the unemployment crisis? Many expect a post-scarcity society will become an enormous status-competition, though subcultures may mitigate this. Virtual communities allow a lot more outlets for obtaining status.
AI and fusion are both largely overhyped, and it's hard to say when if ever they'll mature. Extrapolating from past trends is challenging. How virtual reality fits into the picture is interesting. Panelists agreed that it won't become universal until it's truly immerse for the same reason the Wii has a limited market: you'll step on the cat or break the TV screen.
Back to things more objective: Explore Mars, given by an engineer who worked on Sojourner and the Mars Exploration Rovers. This talk focused largely on the geological discoveries and ground covered by the rovers as they far exceeded the mission designers wildest dreams. We've gotten really lucky with where the last few probes have landed. We'll see if the next several missions have the same good fortune.
Next was writing advice, specifically Raising the Stakes in Middle Grade Fiction. Historically, MG fiction has been episodic, essentially short stories with the same characters. Overarching plot is a newer feature.
One way is to simply make things more serious and let the editors reign you in. Frequently it's just changes in wording that are necessary, while the implications remain clear for the author actually writing the story. Note that writing as if your characters aren't safe (even if they will be) can make it seem much more serious without exceeding the MG boundaries.
Keep the protagonists appropriate for their age level. Kids make mistakes adults wouldn't. Keep in mind what will make the story exciting in the next scene. The story is over once the problem is solved (which raises challenges for series authors). Don't be afraid of experiments. Characters often end up diverging from the outlines because human behaviors are more realistic when the story is unfolding than when it's unfolding in an outline.
The emotional response should work on you. If it doesn't, it probably won't work on readers, either. Many YA authors over-parent their characters. They're not X year olds, they're real people with X years of experience. Kids need to participate if you're going to market it towards kids. That also means no sex scenes, and avoiding permanent injuries and traumas.
Public spaces are a goldmine for good dialog.
Next was a less exciting panel on Space and Human Speciation. The first question we need to ask is what defines a species. Is it interbreeding capability? Morphology? Human populations have been separated for millennia can still interbreed. It would take a very small sample to have sufficient genetic drift less selection pressures to speciate away from homo sapiens.
Adaptation for microgravity and radiation are obvious things which we might genetically engineer for. There's also microbiome effects, and the tribal aspects of interbreeding. Generally, we expect "attractiveness" to matter far more in larger groups than smaller. Epigenetics may also play a role.
Dwarf Planets and Beyond the Kuiper Belt was quite interesting. The IAU definition is not necessarily clear, but that doesn't really matter. The Outer Solar System is far more interesting than we expected because ices are far more malleable than rock, meaning less energy is needed for geological activity. Pluto has water icebergs in oceans of solid nitrogen. It's fascinating.
Ceres is also active, still in the process of mantle differentiation. Lots of water should be available near the surface, which combined with the low escape velocity (about 500 m/s) means it could be a valuable waystation in the asteroid belt.
Lots of dwarf planets have large moons, which suggests frequent gentle collisions. Consider the example of comet 67P Churyumov-Gerasimenko, which appears to be the combination of two nodules.
Currently about $30 billion is spent on space globally each year. That number will go up as developing nations grow wealthier. There's lots of exciting missions and the technology to attempt them. Graphene solar collectors could work as far out as the Kuiper Belt, opening much larger swaths of easy territory. The next few decades are about exploration and tech development. Accessibility is still governed by delta V. Humans will go, but even more robots will go with them.
Also, it's possible the evidence supporting Planet 9 could also have been caused by a solar encounter.
Finally, I went to a talk on Generation Starships. These are a staple in science fiction, but present a lot of serious issues. Firstly is the question of generation ships versus cold sleep. It may be possible to use both, which would be useful, as the cultural elements necessary to keep the ship running for centuries would not be well-suited to colonizing an alien world. Many are worried about such ships suffering their own version of the Easter Island problem.
Autonomous space colonies would face many of the same problems. I think this is a good thing--it lets us test the problem before sending people way beyond help's reach. We've already experienced certain aspects on Earth, but ultimately a generation ship is unprecedented in human history. What we have seen isn't inspiring. Many are affected by large environment changes. Pioneers have often discovered their social values just don't stick in a new world. Ensuring a sense of responsibility and ensuring there's enough recreational options to stay sane is a definite challenge.
One possibility is engineering non-fatal catastrophes to occur each generation, to keep people on their toes. Pournelle gives the example of military bureaucratization: nearly half a century since the last serious, life-threatening war has made things inefficient. It may be necessary to make the exploration of new worlds a religious ideology. Ensuring everyone gets off at the end isn't necessary--the people who remain can refuel and head off for the next star.
That's it for day three. Check back again tomorrow for the next update.
